Newer cohorts are monetizing worse — LTV per user at comparable time-since-cohort points is trending down, and the LTV/CAC ratio is shrinking each month.
LTV trajectory by first-payment cohort (per-user cumulative net revenue):
- May 2026 cohort (200 users): $24.24 at month 0 → $44.72 by month 4 — LTV/CAC = 1.84
- June 2026 cohort (308 users): $25.31 at month 0 → $41.05 by month 3 — LTV/CAC = 1.69
- July 2026 cohort (406 users): $24.74 at month 0 → $34.09 by month 2 — LTV/CAC = 1.41
- August 2026 cohort (343 users): $23.05 at month 0 → $26.81 by month 1 — LTV/CAC = 1.11
- September 2026 cohort (16 users, just started): $28.74 at month 0 — LTV/CAC = 1.19 (too early to read)
Month-0 LTV is fairly flat (~$23–28 across all cohorts), but each successive cohort’s revenue growth after month 0 is weaker — e.g. May grew ~85% from month 0 to its latest point, June ~62%, July ~38%, August only ~16% (one month in). This points to either declining post-trial retention/expansion or slower upsell/renewal behavior in newer users, not an acquisition-quality (CAC) problem, since CAC is held flat at $24.25 across all cohorts in this view.
Trial→paid conversion (a leading indicator) confirms the softening: daily cohort conversion rates in June averaged roughly mid-40%s to 60%s (e.g. 6/12 at 61%, 6/21 at 64%, 6/30 at 69%), July cohorts clustered more in the 35–55% range, and August cohorts skew further down (many in the 30–45% range, e.g. 8/13 at 31%, 8/20 at 33%, 8/26 at 33%). Late-August/September cohorts show 0% converted, but that’s expected right-censoring — those trials haven’t had the ~7 days needed to convert yet, not a real drop to zero.
Likely explanation (moderate confidence): the combination of flat month-0 revenue, decelerating cumulative LTV growth, and a downward drift in trial-conversion rates suggests newer user cohorts are lower-intent or lower-quality on average (possibly tied to changing acquisition mix/campaigns), rather than a pricing or product change — but I don’t have campaign-mix-by-cohort-month data in this pull to confirm the cause. I’d recommend checking whether ad spend/campaign mix shifted materially into July–August before concluding it’s an acquisition-quality issue.
Data notes: All figures above came back “complete” with no caveats. However, the September 2026 LTV cohort (16 users) and the trailing trial-cohorts from ~2026-08-27 onward have not had time to mature/convert (right-censored) — their 0% conversion and single-point LTV are not evidence of decline, just insufficient elapsed time. Treat July/August LTV trajectories as directional, not final, since later months of their curves haven’t accrued yet either.